Vikings-Titans preview, predictions: Can Sam Darnold right the ship in Tennessee?

The Minnesota Vikings’ season was always going to live and die by the play of its quarterback.

Sam Darnold has exceeded most realistic expectations. He is one of the key cogs in the team’s 7-2 start. At the same time, the Vikings have played with fire the last two weeks, mostly because of Darnold’s untimely turnovers.

Capping off an undefeated stretch against the AFC South this weekend against the Tennessee Titans will require sound decision-making from Darnold — and much more. As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

The last time we took on the Titans …@JJettas2 WENT OFF!

7 catches
175 yards
2 TDS

📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/tUN11WuBCE

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 14, 2024

What I’m watching

Lewis: The Vikings’ offensive plan. Last Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars played with more two-high safety coverage than any NFL team had since Next Gen Stats began tracking the statistic in 2018. Whether the approach worked is up for debate. The Vikings possessed the ball for more than 42 minutes. They converted 28 first downs. They amassed more than 400 yards of offense. Yet despite that production, turnovers held the Vikings to 12 points in the end. The Titans have one of the highest two-high safety rates in the league, so they may try to replicate the strategy. What will Minnesota’s plan look like if Tennessee goes that route? Will it be another heavy dosage of runs and underneath passes to tight end T.J. Hockenson? Will the Vikings scheme additional ways to dump the ball off to receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison? How the Vikings offense looks — and how Tennessee tries to defend it — will be fascinating.

Krawczynski: The Titans defense. What an interesting group. It has allowed only 1,543 total yards this season, the lowest number in the NFL by nearly 200 yards, so moving the ball is likely to be tough, especially on the road. That said, the Titans are giving up 26.7 points per game, a rather large number for a team ranked No. 1 in total defense. They only have six takeaways on the season, a good sign for Darnold. But it’s harder to see the Minnesota offense dominating time of possession and rolling up yards like it did in Jacksonville last week. Despite the disparity in the records, this could be a better fight than people expect.

Biggest concerns

Lewis: Sam Darnold’s decision-making. This is the low-hanging fruit, but Darnold has six turnover-worthy plays in the last two games. He has thrown five interceptions over that span, four in the red zone. They don’t all have a theme. Some of the interceptions have been the result of ball placement. Other times, Darnold’s decision-making looks fuzzy. The Titans are more talented on defense than the Jaguars, and Jeffery Simmons is capable of serious damage against the most susceptible facet of the Vikings offensive line: the interior. Will Darnold have time to make the correct decisions? And is he going to be more accurate this week than he was last Sunday? The Vikings’ performance — and season, really — rises and falls with the answers to those questions.

Krawczynski: J.J. McCarthy’s knee. Sorry to be alarmist, but yeah, I did get the heebie-jeebies when I found out McCarthy needed more treatment. It may not be a big deal. I saw some outlets report that it’s almost standard operating procedure. But I think we’ve found out over the last few weeks that Darnold really is a bridge quarterback. He has done some things well, but he is falling back to earth a bit. If McCarthy was healthy and the team was losing, it would have been interesting to see if O’Connell made an in-season switch. J.J. is the future of this organization. So when it was announced that more work was needed, I did get a little worried.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Brian Flores’ defense vs. Will Levis. The only NFL quarterback with a worse EPA per dropback against pressure than Levis is Joe Flacco. You don’t have to jog the memory a ton to recall what Flacco looked like against Flores’ defense. For two years now, the Vikings have feasted on young quarterbacks, especially young QBs with a tendency to turn the football over. Levis has the highest turnover per play rate of any QB in the NFL. The Vikings will stress the Titans’ pass protection unit, including running backs, more than any defense they’ve faced. How Tennessee’s offensive line handles it has the chance to sway the game.

Krawczynski: Jeffrey Simmons vs. the Vikings interior offensive line. I will often look to this matchup because I think it’s critical. Simmons is a monster, and he will be ornery this weekend. After the loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last week, Simmons seethed in the Titans locker room, telling reporters the players have to “say less and do more.” Laying down the law like that likely means Simmons will come into this game ready to wreak some havoc. The Vikings offensive line better be ready or it will get mauled.

Most interesting storyline

Lewis: Where’s Jordan Addison? The second-year receiver has 21 catches for 298 yards and two touchdowns. He’s averaging around 42 yards per game. His target share has not dwindled much from 2023 to 2024, and the fact that it has decreased at all has a lot to do with Jefferson being healthy. Still, the Vikings selected Addison for a reason. They want him to dominate when defenses load up against Jefferson. There have been spurts. Two weeks ago against Indianapolis, he caught five passes for 42 yards, including an absurd diving, one-handed touchdown catch. It’s also worth mentioning that Darnold missed him on an easy explosive play last week over the middle against the Jaguars. The reality, however, is the Vikings need more from one of the better young players they’ve drafted in the last few seasons.

Krawczynski: That the Vikings could bounce back with a sharp performance this weekend … and it still wouldn’t really mean anything. The Titans are 2-7. They stink. Barring some kind of 42-7 wipeout, the Vikings are going to do little to move the needle with a win this weekend. A loss, of course, would be bad. One game in the NFL is usually so important. The playoff pendulum can swing wildly depending on the outcome. But I think the only way we draw any real conclusions coming out of this one is if they lose. If they win, it will certainly be a good thing. Never apologize for winning, even that debacle in Jacksonville. But the level of opponent these next two weeks is not good enough to quell the concerns that have bubbled to the surface over the last few weeks.

How the teams match up from a data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and combined winning efficiency for strength of schedule:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 21, Titans 17. Last week taught me a lesson I’d learned in the first two years covering the NFL: No game is a certainty … ever. I’m scarred by it, hence the close score prediction. The Vikings defense against Levis gives me enough confidence to pick Minnesota, but this game could very well look like last week’s. Don’t be surprised by a slog.

Krawczynski: Vikings 20, Titans 16. Until the Vikings offense really gets humming, I’m going to keep the point totals low. Like Alec, I think the purple defense flummoxes Levis to the point of winning with a little bit of wiggle room. But it would behoove Darnold not to throw a bunch of reckless picks again this week.

(Photo: Rich Storry / Getty Images)