Vikings Just-Over-Halfway Season Report – Daily Norseman

The Minnesota Vikings have moved to 7-2 in their first nine games after managing to prevail in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. And with that victory, the Vikings move past the half way point in the season.

Over the first half of the season, the Vikings have compiled a lot of good plays and stats, and some not so good ones. And despite their 7-2 record, there are some things the Vikings need to adjust to be more effective and make a deep run in the postseason.

Let’s take a look.

Vikings’ Box Score and Advanced Stats

Stats are shown by league ranking followed by the raw number in paratheses.

Box Score Stats

• Record: tied for 4th (7-2)
• Point differential: 8th (+64)
• Simple Rating System (SRS): 2nd (7.82). This is a point differential-based rating weighted for strength of schedule and home field advantage.
• Average Scoring Margin: 7th (+7.1 points)

Offensive Scoring Box Score Stats

• Offense points scored: 10th (221)
• Passing Touchdowns: 6th (17)
• Rushing Touchdowns: 30th (4)
• Points per Play: 10th (0.402)

Offensive Yardage Box Score Stats

• Total Yards: 13th (3,092)
• Average Yards per Play: 13th (5.6)
• Average Yards per Game: 13th (343.6)
• Passing Attempts: 25th (263)
• Passing Yards: 12th (2,010)
• Average Net Yards per Passing Attempt: 8th (6.9)
• Rushing Attempts: 11th (260)
• Rushing Yards: 16th (1,082)
• Average Rushing Yards per Attempt: 21st (4.2)

Defensive Scoring Box Score Stats

• Defensive Points Allowed: 3rd (157)
• Passing Touchdowns Allowed: 20th (14)
• Rushing Touchdowns Allowed: 2nd (4)
• Points per Play Allowed: 4th (0.282)

Defensive Yardage Box Score Stats

• Total Yards Allowed: 11th (2,798)
• Average Yards per Play Allowed: 6th (5.0)
• Average Yards per Game Allowed: 11th (310.9)
• Opponent Pass Attempts: 29th (338)
• Passing Yards Allowed: 26th (2,087)
• Average Net Passing Yards per Attempt Allowed: 7th (5.7)
• Opponent Rushing Attempts: 1st (fewest) (189)
• Rushing Yards Allowed: 2nd (711)
• Net Yards per Rushing Attempt Allowed: 3rd (3.8)

Turnovers

• Offensive turnovers: 29th (16)
• Fumbles lost: 24th (6)
• Interceptions Thrown: 25th (10)
• Defensive Takeaways: 1st (20)
• Fumbles Recovered: 12th (5)
• Interceptions: 1st (15)

Penalties

• Penalties per Game: 22nd (7.0)
• Penalty Yards per Game: 19th (52.3)
• Opponent Penalties per Game: 6th (7.1)
• Opponent Penalty Yards per Game: 7th (59.7)

Situational Stats

• Third-Down Conversion Percentage: 10th (40.2%)
• Opponent Third-Down Conversion Percentage: 8th (33.6%)
• Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 19th (53.3%)
• Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 25th (63.6%)
• Red Zone Offensive EPA/play: 28th (-0.31)
• Red Zone Offensive Pass EPA/play: 20th (-0.24)
• Red Zone Offensive Rush EPA/play: 31st (-0.39)
• Red Zone Defensive EPA/play: 22nd (-0.01)
• Red Zone Defense Pass EPA/play Allowed: 15th (-0.02)
• Red Zone Defense Rush EPA/play Allowed: 14th (-0.01)

DVOA

DVOA is a measure of efficiency expressed as a percentage relative to average and adjusted for strength of opponent. Larger negative percentage is better for defensive DVOA, while larger positive percentage is better for offensive and special teams DVOA. Click on the DVOA title above for a more complete explanation.

• Total Team: 4th (+22.8%)
• Offense: 17th (-1.8%)
• Defense: 1st (-25.0%)
• Special Teams: 19th (-0.4%)

The Viking have played the 7th most difficult schedule so far (+4.8% average DVOA) and have the 16th most difficult remaining schedule (+1.4% average DVOA).

Offensive DVOA Breakdown

• Passing: 16th (+18.9%)
• Rushing: 19th (-7.0%)

The Vikings’ offense has faced the 11th most difficult schedule (-1.4% average defensive DVOA) so far this season.

Defensive DVOA Breakdown

• Passing: 1st (-22.7%)
• Rushing: 1st (-29.8%)

The Vikings’ defense has faced the 6th most difficult slate of offensive opponents so far this season (+6.0% DVOA). The biggest flaw in the Vikings’ defensive DVOA has been the game-to-game variance, which ranks 30th. So, while the Vikings have the top defense in overall DVOA, their level of efficiency can vary more significantly game-to-game than average.

Trends

Over the first four games of the season, the Vikings were winning games by jumping off to big early leads with chunk plays in the passing game, complemented by an unorthodox defense that opponents couldn’t figure out.

But after those first four games, teams began to adjust to counter the Vikings’ winning formula. Looking at the chart above, you can see how the Vikings’ Total DVOA has changed from weeks 1-4 compared to weeks 5-10.

But if you look at the Vikings’ offensive DVOA each week on the graph above, you would’ve thought the two games the Vikings lost were against the Jets and Jaguars. Sam Darnold’s best game in terms of both passer rating and ESPN’s QBR (an EPA-based metric) was against the Rams, which the Vikings lost. But both the Jets and Jaguars employed a successful scheme to limit the Vikings’ passing attack down the field. The Jets had two good corners that could play man coverage well and the Jaguars used almost exclusively two-deep safety shell coverage to limit chunk passing plays to wide receivers.

The Vikings offense had opportunities to target tight ends and running backs more often, but Kevin O’Connell seemed to have been more focused on keeping Sam Darnold aggressive in pushing the ball downfield, foregoing open receivers underneath and accepting the interceptions that go with throwing deeper shots to not always open receivers. That strategy has its merits, but when opposing defenses are focused on taking that part of the passing game away, that means throwing into the teeth of the defense.

The Vikings are one of 23 teams that have a negative rushing EPA/play, which is typical. The only teams that have a positive EPA/play rushing either have a quarterback that can run well or multiple good running backs. The Vikings are particularly poor running the ball in the red zone, ranking 31st in EPA/play on such occasions. And if you take away the 40-yard touchdown run Aaron Jones had against the Lions, there isn’t a lot to write home about the Vikings’ rushing attack right now. There is some prospect for improvement as Cam Akers has proven to be an upgrade over Ty Chandler, but the Vikings haven’t generated many explosive runs and have only 4 rushing touchdowns for the season.

When you look at the Vikings’ defensive DVOA by game, as opposed to the offensive DVOA charts, you get an accurate view of which two games the Vikings lost (remember bigger negative % is better for defensive DVOA). You might also notice that the three worst DVOA games the Vikings had defensively this season also happen to be the three games that Blake Cashman was out. Not sure if that’s a coincidence or not. Cashman is good at all aspects of the linebacker position, but probably has some value on top of that when it comes to communication and getting the Vikings into the right call defensively. He is the defensive play-caller when he plays (green-dot), but beyond that he may do more pre-snap to help the Vikings defensively. Against both the Lions and Rams, there seemed to be a bit more confusion or uncertainty at times presnap than there was in other games.

Be that as it may, the Vikings’ defense may also be slow to respond to offensive counters to Brian Flores’ unorthodox scheme. As more tape of it became available, teams began to understand Flores’ tendencies. He blitzes at nearly a 50% rate on first and second down, but not as much on third down- opting to play coverage more often. The counters to that have been condensed offensive line splits (less space for blitzers) and motioning or keeping in an extra blocker as needed.

I’m not sure yet if Flores has done enough to adjust for the possible counters to his scheme- the Colts with Joe Flacco and the Jaguars with Mac Jones aren’t exactly offensive powerhouses- but it helps that the Vikings have some players that are beginning to grade well individually as well. Jonathan Greenard, Blake Cashman, and now Byron Murphy Jr. are emerging as good players at their position this season, and Andrew Van Ginkel remains dangerous with 10 TFLs (two off the lead) and two pick-sixes to lead the league. Byron Murphy Jr. has three interceptions on just ten targets in the last three games. He has been targeted just 14 times in the last four games after being targeted 26 times in the previous two games. Greenard is 7th in pass rush productivity among starting edge rushers according to PFF.

The Vikings have the league’s best pass defense in DVOA terms, but the Lions and Rams game showed that it’s not infallible. Flores’ scheme is clearly effective, but he also needs to be wary of tendencies and counters and adjust as needed.

The best and most consistent of all phases for the Vikings has been their rush defense. With the slight hiccup against the Lions, who have the highest rushing DVOA in the league at +19.7%, the Vikings haven’t allowed much success running the ball this season. They’ve allowed the 3rd lowest yards per rush attempt, second-fewest yards on the fewest attempts, and also have the third-best PFF team run defense grade. And whether situationally or tactically, teams have chosen not to run much against the Vikings.

Then there are the Vikings’ special teams. Most of the time they’ve been near to average, but occasionally they’ve made an impact. Whether Jalen Nailor’s muffed punt return, or made or missed field goals, they haven’t been far from average most of the time. Will Reichard’s two missed field goals against the Colts may have had the biggest negative impact. But overall the biggest aspect of special teams- making field goals and extra points- seems to have become more automatic with Will Reichard. So far with Parker Romo too. And Ryan Wright seems to have rebounded from a terrible sophomore season.

Lastly there is Sam Darnold. He is playing much better than he has at previous stops- his passer rating remains over 20 points higher than his pre-Vikings career average. But the interceptions are mounting- especially with five in the last two games.

The chart above shows Darnold’s game-by-game passer ratings, which operate on a 0-158.3 scale. Generally, a passer rating over 100 indicates a solid game, and Darnold has done that in seven of nine games. The exceptions being the Jets and Jaguars games.

ESPN’s QBR or quarterback rating is an EPA-based rating adjusted for strength of opponent, home field advantage, and for garbage time. It uses a 100-point scale with 50 meant to be league average. Darnold’s QBR on the season is 54.7.

PFF grading is also based on a 100-point scale, with 60 considered average. Darnold’s overall grade for the season so far is 73.9.

Overall, Darnold has had two bad games vs. the Jets and Jaguars by these measures. But the other takeaway is that after his first four games, results have been more varied and the average is lower. This reflects opposing defenses adjusting to take away the chunk passing plays and particularly Justin Jefferson. Darnold, and Kevin O’Connell, haven’t responded as well to these defensive adjustments. The main issue, particularly with Darnold, is too much of a focus on Justin Jefferson and trying to push the ball downfield even when that’s what the opposing defense is taking away. That, as much as anything, has led to the interceptions.

Adjustments Needed

The biggest needed adjustments at this point are on offense, and we saw a good deal of them against the Jaguars, although Sam Darnold needs to be more disciplined in taking what the defense gives him, rather than trying to force throws- mainly to Justin Jefferson- when he isn’t open. Certainly Jefferson can make contested catches as well as any receiver but throwing into tight windows at a high rate is bound to catch up with you. His accuracy of late has also been off more than earlier in the season.

Defenses around the league have been using more split safety or two-high safety coverages over the last couple seasons. Some have even blamed that for a lack of scoring. It has been a Vic Fangio inspired trend in the league to cut down on explosive passing plays by having more defenders deep to prevent them, in simple terms. And it’s the logical counter to what the Vikings want to do offensively- throw intermediate/deep balls to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. It’s no secret that the Darnold-to-Jefferson connection has been the most explosive in the league, and so opposing defenses know they need to do whatever it takes to stop it or they’re going to lose, plain and simple.

Jefferson has been targeted on 1 of every 3 of Darnold’s passes and accounts for nearly 50% of Darnold’s air yards thrown. Jefferson also leads the league in receptions over ten yards downfield and his targets this season have come at the deepest route depth (14.1 yards) of his career. There is absolutely no question Darnold is looking for Jefferson on nearly every dropback. Opposing defenses know this and make defending this their top priority.

The counter to the split-safety shell coverage the Jaguars used almost exclusively last week is for the Vikings to use 12 (or 21) personnel all day- two tight ends or a tight-end and fullback. With two safeties deep, that leaves the Vikings in better position to either run the ball more effectively or throw underneath routes to tight ends- and the Vikings have two good tight ends now in T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver. The Vikings did that quite a bit against the Jaguars, which led to some of the longest drives they’ve had all season. Those types of drives can be killers when they result in touchdowns- forcing opposing offenses into ‘must score’ drives against the Vikings’ top ranked defense to keep serve. The Vikings possessed the ball for over 42 minutes against the Jags and ran over 80 plays. That’ll wear any defense down over the course of the game.

The problem of course is that Darnold has not been patient enough to stick with taking what the defense gives him rather than forcing longer throws to Jefferson. And he’s been fairly myopic in targeting Jefferson when others have been open. This has been the case going back to at least the Jets game, when Josh Oliver was wide open several times but Darnold was looking only for Jefferson, or much less often Addison.

On Darnold’s last four interceptions, shown above, he’s looking exclusively at Jefferson. In the first, Jordan Addison was wide open for a 77-yard touchdown- but Darnold never even looked at him. In the second, Josh Oliver would’ve been the safer target- or simply throw it away. In the third, Brandon Powell early or Aaron Jones late were open targets. Jefferson was open when Darnold targeted him, however- it was just a very poor throw low and behind him. On the last, nobody was open early but Hockenson across the middle late would’ve picked up the first down.

The other issue with Darnold that has come up a few times in the last two games is just poor accuracy/ball placement on end zone throws that have led to interceptions. Darnold’s first interception in the Colts game (not shown above) he scrambled but threw short to Hockenson crossing in the end zone where two Colts defenders could’ve intercepted the ball- and one did. The throw should’ve been high to where only Hockenson could reach it. Similarly, the last interception thrown targeting Jefferson in the Jags game should’ve been high to where only Jefferson could reach it. Instead Darnold threw it underneath making for an easy interception.

Kevin O’Connell has remained very supportive of Darnold, despite the interceptions, as I’m sure he’s conscious of Darnold’s fragile confidence- and the need for him to maintain it. He’s said repeatedly that he’s willing to accept the interceptions as a consequence of being aggressive down the field. But at this point, with defenses more aggressively looking to take away Jefferson and the chunk passing plays, O’Connell needs to emphasize a ‘take what the defense gives you’ mentality and seeing and targeting receivers besides Jefferson.

Eventually, using 12 personnel to counter split safety shell coverage, which give the Vikings the advantage in the run game and in targeting tight ends or running backs in the pass game, will force defenses to adjust to single-high safety coverage or continue to give up long drives that wear them down. The key for the Vikings and Sam Darnold is to remain disciplined in that approach when called for. The other thing is that the Vikings need to execute better in the red zone, and that begins with being more efficient running the ball. The Vikings have the highest graded duo of tight ends in the league in Hockenson and Oliver and can put them to good use in countering opposing defenses looking to shut down Jefferson and the deep passing game. They also have two good backs in Aaron Jones and Cam Akers that can move the chains on the ground and as receivers. Kevin O’Connell could also use Jefferson on some shallow crossing routes with tight ends blocking downfield for longer YAC opportunities against split safety shell coverage.

Bottom line, the Vikings have the personnel to beat whatever opposing defenses are dialing up to stop them, they just need to be more open minded to the options and disciplined in taking what the defense gives them.

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Defensively, Brian Flores needs to keep turning his Rubik’s Cube so opposing offenses can’t solve it. His formula of blitzing 50% of the time on early downs is a difficult one for offensive coordinators to solve even when they know it’s coming. The Vikings’ ability to adjust the call presnap based on the look they see makes it even more challenging.

It would be nice if Flores felt strong enough about his defenders’ ability to play man coverage to use it a bit more, which could help tighten up coverage at times and mix it up a bit more- the Vikings are playing zone around 80% of the time now.

Continuing to experiment with blitz types to keep quarterbacks and offensive lines guessing may also be beneficial in developing counters to some of the protection options teams have used against them this season.

But lastly, optimizing personnel usage and continuing to develop players- old and young- so more players can win individually and not just as a product of scheme would be ideal going forward.

Byron Murphy Jr. has shown a lot of growth this season and since week four has the second-highest PFF coverage grade among starting cornerbacks, the most interceptions, the highest grade in man coverage, and the 6th lowest passer rating when targeted. He plays predominantly outside cornerback, with slot corner seemingly being covered by committee that includes Murphy, but also Josh Metellus and others.

Jonathan Greenard also seems to be ramping up as the season progresses both as a pass rusher and run defender. His PFF season grade right now is a career high.

Blake Cashman’s value to the Vikings’ defense may also be calculated by the difference in his absence. Brian Flores talked about his coverage ability and how that opens things up in sending blitzers- including himself at times- and keeping the offense guessing. His ability as play-caller and audibler may be understated as well. He’s also the 14th highest graded inside linebacker according to PFF. He is approaching the grades he had last season, which were his career best by far. Also, Ivan Pace is a much better blitzer and run defender than he is in coverage, so having Cashman to take on coverage duties frees-up Pace to do what he does best.

But it would be nice to see some other defenders ramping up too. Cam Bynum, in a contract year, is still not grading out as well as last season or his rookie year (limited snaps), but could equal or exceed both if he can build on his last two games.

I don’t think we’ll see Dallas Turner breakout this season (his snaps have been limited and he’s graded slightly below average), but with some improvement he could take more reps from Patrick Jones II, who isn’t showing improvement as the season wears on.

Andrew Van Ginkel has been a disruptor to be sure, but he’s also been up and down over the course of the season. A little more consistency from him would be beneficial.

Josh Metellus has elite grading as a tackler and run defender so far this season. He doesn’t grade as well in coverage, which is important, but his overall grading is better than last season and he could still improve.

I am concerned about how the old guys- Harrison Smith and Stephon Gilmore- are holding up as the season goes on. Neither show much sign of ramping up, but they are showing the continuing slide in their performance over the past few years. They both have Friday rest days as it is, but it would be nice if someone could emerge to take at least a handful of reps per game off their plate without compromising the defense. Shaq Griffin hasn’t been getting as much reps lately, but grades around the same as Gilmore, so maybe he could get more use to help keep Gilmore fresher over the course of a game. He’s big enough where he could play some safety too, unless Flores thinks Theo Jackson could step up for a handful of plays each game. Maybe it won’t make much difference either way, but how the two old guys will hold up down the stretch is probably the biggest concern defensively going forward.

Bottom Line

In some ways, the worst week for the Vikings over the first half of the season might have been their bye-week. They didn’t appear to have self-scouted enough to install variations of what they showed on tape over the first five games, and they wound up with back-to-back losses following their week off. It was only during their mini-bye week after the Thursday night game when they might have looked more seriously at making adjustments.

But they still need to continue to make adjustments in the on-going chess match between coordinators looking for subtle changes and counters to give them an advantage and help put their players in the best position to succeed.

But if they can stay healthy and respond to defenses focusing on taking Justin Jefferson and the deep passing game away, while continuing to both mix things up defensively and gain more mastery over Brian Flores’ scheme, they’ll almost certainly make the postseason and most likely advance. As it stands now, the Vikings are likely to be favored in every game before the season finale in Detroit. And after they conclude this three-game road trip in Tennessee and Chicago, they’ll have four of their last six games at home. They’ll need the Lions to lose one more game than them down the stretch to make their season finale a match for the division title (and most likely first seed in the playoffs), as I believe the Lions currently hold the tie-breaker for record against common opponents (they beat the Rams).

A lot can and will happen between now and January, but the Vikings remain in good position to do some damage in the playoffs if they can continue to evolve and gel on both sides of the ball.