With Halloween right around the corner, this seems like the perfect time to hand out costume ideas, so that’s exactly what we’re going to do before we get to the picks this week.
If you’re a Giants fan, you could go as a bench, because that’s where Daniel Jones is going to spend the rest of the season if he doesn’t start playing better. If you’re a Dolphins fan, you could go as nothing since that’s what Miami has done on offense this season without Tua Tagovailoa.
The good news for the Dolphins is that it’s looking like Tua is going to return this week. So does that mean I’ll be picking Miami to win?
Let’s get to the sports betting picks for Week 8 and find out.
NFL Week 8 picks
Minnesota (5-1) at L.A. Rams (2-4)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
Point spread pick: Rams (+3 at FanDuel)
On paper, the Vikings are definitely the better team in this game, but no one uses paper anymore, so that fact means nothing to me.
I only care about trends, and there are two trends telling me to pick the Rams to win this game. First, teams flying two time zones or more to the west for a Thursday game almost always lose. Since the return of “Thursday Night Football” in 2006, this has happened a total of 20 times and the Central/Eastern time zone team that flew west has gone 4-16 straight up and 4-14-2 ATS (And two of those four wins were by Aaron Rodgers while he was going through his MVP run with the Packers).
I have no idea why teams are so bad in this situation, but I have some theories. When you’re playing on a Thursday, you only have 72 hours to recover from your Sunday game, and 3.5 of those hours are spent on a plane because you have to fly HALFWAY across the country. Once you get off the plane, you then have to adjust to a new time zone.
I live in the Central time zone and, like the Vikings are about to do, I made a trip to California recently. During that trip, I was ready for bed at 7:30 p.m. PT every night and I have no idea why. Based on that, the Vikings will be getting sleepy around the third quarter, so that’s the time we fully expect the Rams to start taking over.
Not only is it tough to turn around and play on a Thursday, but the Vikings have to do it after playing the Lions, which brings me to my second trend. No team has won a game this year the week after playing the Lions. Apparently, the Lions are beating up on teams so badly that it makes it impossible to win the following week. It doesn’t matter whether a team wins or loses to the Lions, this trend only involves their next game after facing Detroit.
Here’s a look at the Lions’ opponents so far in 2024:
Week 1: Rams (Lost 41-10 to Cardinals in Week 2)
Week 2: Buccaneers (Lost 26-7 to Broncos in Week 3 — Tampa Bay was favored by 6)
Week 3: Cardinals (Lost 42-14 to Commanders in Week 4 — Arizona was favored by 3.5)
Week 4: Seahawks (Lost 29-20 to Giants in Week 5 — Seattle was favored by 7)
Week 5: BYE
Week 6: Cowboys (Got a bye in Week 7, face the 49ers in Week 8)
Week 7: Vikings (Playing the Rams in Week 8)
That’s four teams that have gone a combined 0-4 after facing the Lions, and three of the teams were favored to win. Also, the four losses were by an average of 21.8 points per game. At this point, I couldn’t even pick the Vikings if I wanted to. And let’s not forget, the Rams will likely be getting Cooper Kupp back, which should provide a huge boost for the offense.
THE PICK: Rams 23-20 over Vikings
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Arizona (3-4) at Miami (2-4)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread pick: Dolphins (-3 at DraftKings)
Tua Tagovailoa will be returning to practice this week and if he gets cleared from his concussion, he’ll be the starter on Sunday against Arizona. I once dressed up as a doctor for Halloween and based on what I’ve read on the internet, that qualifies me to medically clear Tua, so Tua, you’re cleared.
Anyway, Tua hasn’t played since Week 2 when he suffered a concussion against the Bills, and since his injury, the Dolphins offense has done exactly nothing. As a matter of fact, in the four games that Tua has missed, the Dolphins scored just 40 total points, which is pretty bad when you consider that they scored 70 POINTS in a single game last season.
One reason the Dolphins’ offense has been so bad is because their backup QB situation has been a disaster. Tyler Huntley has been the starter over the past three weeks and it’s not that he’s bad quarterback, but they JUST SIGNED HIM on Sept. 17. He then had to make his first start on Sept. 30, and as you can probably imagine, that didn’t go well. In Week 4, the Dolphins lost to the Titans, who currently still only have win and that one win was against Miami.
Huntley went down with a shoulder injury in Week 7, which meant the Dolphins had to put in Tim Boyle. I’m not sure what you know about Boyle, but he’s basically the human form of waving the white flag. If he’s in, that means his team is surrendering: Boyle’s team are 0-10 all time in any game where he’s ever had to throw at least one pass.
Somehow, that is not the worst record of all time. That honor belongs to Zach Mettenberger, who watched his teams go 0-13 in games where he threw at least one pass.
The point to all of this is that if Tua plays, I feel very good about the Dolphins’ chances of winning, but if he doesn’t, it feels like the Cardinals are going to roll. Obviously, since the Dolphins are so bad without Tua, I’ll be making two picks for this game.
THE PICK (IF TUA PLAYS): Dolphins 30-20 over Cardinals
THE PICK (IF TUA DOESN’T PLAY): Cardinals 27-17 over Dolphins
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Atlanta (4-3) at Tampa Bay (4-3)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread pick: Falcons (-2.5 at BetMGM)
These two teams played back in Week 5 and I have watched that game seven times since then and I still have no idea how Atlanta won. The Falcons did their best to give the game away with a missed field goal and an interception in the final seven minutes, but they still managed to win because Kirk Cousins played the best game of his life (he threw for 509 yards and four touchdowns).
This time around, Cousins might not have to throw for 500 yards for the Falcons to win and that’s mostly because I don’t think this game is going to turn into a shootout like the first meeting did. If the Falcons start piling up the points, the Bucs likely won’t be able to keep up and that’s mostly because Baker Mayfield has no one to throw to.
During Tampa Bay’s game on Monday night against the Ravens, the Bucs lost Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injury and they almost certainly won’t be playing this week. With those two out, the Buccaneers have exactly zero players on their roster who have more than 175 yards receiving this year. Mayfield might be throwing to himself in this game.
The defense also has to figure out a way to stop Cousins, which I’m not sure is going to happen. Over the past three weeks, the Buccaneers have surrendered at least 500 yards TWICE with the Falcons (Week 5) and Ravens (Week 8) both going over that number. The Buccaneers had one of the worst teams in NFL history in 1976 when they went 0-14. Well, you know what that team never did? They never surrendered 500 yards to an opponent.
There’s only been one other season in Bucs history where they surrendered 500 yards at least twice, and that came in 1985. That team went 2-14. Now that I’m reading this back to myself out loud, it’s start to sound like I’m losing all faith in Tampa Bay.
Here’s the upside for Sunday: If the Bucs can keep Cousins off the field, they don’t have to worry about him going off, and they can keep him off the field by running the ball. In the first meeting, the Bucs averaged an insane 6.15 yards per rush, and thanks to that success, I won’t be surprised if they run the ball even more against a Falcons defense that’s surrendering 137 yards per game on the ground. Also, with no Evans and no Godwin, the Bucs are almost going to be forced to run the ball.
This is a make-or-break game for the Buccaneers: If they lose, that means the Falcons will have swept them on the season, which will put Atlanta in the driver’s seat for any tiebreakers that might come into play at the top of the NFC South at the end of the season. This is a game the Bucs can’t afford to lose, but I think they’re too banged up to win it.
THE PICK: Falcons 27-20 over Buccaneers
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Buffalo (5-2) at Seattle (4-3)
4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread pick: Seahawks (+3 at FanDuel)
I’m not sure how it happened, but it seems that Josh Allen has figured out how to not throw interceptions. Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but if there was one big knock on him, it’s that he always seems to throw at least one back-breaking interception every few weeks. During the 2023 season, Allen threw 18 interceptions, which was the second most in the NFL, behind only Sam Howell, who is no longer a starting QB in the NFL.
In 2022, Allen threw 14 interceptions, which was tied for the third most in the NFL. In 2021, Allen threw 15 interceptions, which was also tied for the third most in the NFL. I think you probably get my point by now. The reason I’m bringing this all up is because Allen has not thrown a single interception this year.
Through seven games, Allen has ZERO interceptions, which isn’t just the longest streak without throwing a pick in his career, it’s also the longest streak in franchise history.
Unfortunately for Allen and the Bills, I think this streak is going to come to a crashing end in Seattle. Although Allen has looked like an MVP candidate in Buffalo’s home games, he’s looked like Daniel Jones when Buffalo plays on the road. He’s the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of NFL quarterbacks.
Here’s a look at how he plays at home vs. on the road:
HOME (3-0): 272.7 passing yards per game, 2.7 TD passes per game
ROAD (2-2): 166.3 passing yards per game, 1 TD pass per game
Allen had arguably the worst game of his career in Week 5 when he completed just 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards in a loss to the Texans, and in news that won’t surprise anyone, that one came on the road. If this game were in Buffalo, I’d probably pick the Bills by double digits, but since it’s in Seattle, I’m rolling with the Seahawks.
THE PICK: Seahawks 30-27 over Bills
Dallas (3-3) at San Francisco (3-4)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point spread pick: 49ers (-4.5 at FanDuel)
Through seven weeks, it’s become pretty clear that the Cowboys have one major flaw and that flaw is their defense. Having a major flaw isn’t necessarily a bad thing. My major flaw is that I sometimes watch all of my wife’s “Gilmore Girls” DVDs. To fix that flaw, I’ve destroyed all the “Gilmore Girls” DVDs in my house, and just to be safe, I’ve also destroyed the DVD player. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, there’s no easy fix for their problem.
Heading into Week 8, the Cowboys are surrendering 28 points per game, which is the second most in the NFL. Only the Carolina Panthers are worse. The Panthers are 1-6 and unquestionably the worst team in football. When you’re mentioned in the same conversation as them, that’s definitely a red flag.
One reason the Cowboys are giving up so many points is because they can’t stop the run. Through their first six games, the Cowboys are surrendering an average of 143.2 yards per game, which makes them one of just six teams in the NFL that’s giving up more than 140.
The problem with that is that they’re about face a 49ers team that loves to run the ball. The 49ers are averaging 149.9 yards per game on the ground, which ranks in the top six in the NFL. If you watched the 49ers in Week 7, you may have noticed that Brock Purdy threw three interceptions. To fix that problem, my guess is that Kyle Shanahan is going to simplify the offense this week by calling more run plays, because calling more run plays is exactly what you want to do against a Cowboys defense that can’t stop the run. Also, the 49ers just lost Brandon Aiyuk to an ACL and MCL injury and Deebo Samuel might also miss this game, so running the ball might actually be their only option.
And just so you know, if you’re starting to feel like everyone on the 49ers’ roster is injured, you’re not crazy.
The Cowboys will be facing a 49ers team that is dealing with all of THIS:
And yet, I still don’t think Dallas is going to be able to pull this out.
Shanahan always seems to be one step ahead of Mike McCarthy. The Cowboys and 49ers have faced each other three times over the past 34 months and the 49ers have won all three meetings with the Cowboys averaging just 13 points per game. I’ll say they score slightly more than that this week, but not by much.
THE PICK: 49ers 24-16 over Cowboys
NFL Week 8 picks: All the rest
Bengals 27-24 over Eagles
Lions 31-17 over Titans
Ravens 27-13 over Browns
Jets 23-16 over Patriots
Packers 31-23 over Jaguars
Texans 20-17 over Colts
Chargers 24-16 over Saints
Broncos 23-13 over Panthers
Chiefs 24-17 over Raiders
Commanders 27-23 over Bears (IF JAYDEN DANIELS PLAYS)
Bears 23-20 over Bears (IF DANIELS DOESN’T PLAY)
Steelers 30-17 over Giants
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Chiefs would upset the 49ers on the road, and guess what happened? The Chiefs upset the 49ers on the road. The Chiefs were an underdog in this game and I tried to tell anyone who would listen that Patrick Mahomes never loses as an underdog.
The fastest way to becoming a millionaire in this country is to:
1. Wait for Mahomes to be an underdog
2. Bet everything on the Chiefs
3. Profit
If you’re wondering why I’m not a millionaire, it’s because I’ve been taking the money I’ve won on the Chiefs and betting it on the Jets.
Worst pick: Speaking of the Jets, if I’ve learned one thing about myself over the past week, it’s that I’m addicted to picking the Jets to win, which makes no sense, because they’re one of the worst teams in the NFL and they always lose. As such, I’ve spent the past 36 hours at a BPA meeting (Bad Pickers Anonymous) trying to get this issue rectified and I think we finally had a breakthrough. Apparently, my problem is that since I picked the Jets to go to the AFC title game this year (LOL), I’ve been picking them to win games out of shame and guilt each week in a desperate hope to keep my preseason pick alive. That’s not how life works, though.
Let’s check out how the past two weeks have gone:
- I picked the Jets to beat the Bills in Week 6. They lost.
- I picked the Jets to beat the Steelers in Week 7. They lost.
I’ve gone 22-7 over the past two weeks: 0-2 picking the Jets and 22-5 picking everyone else. The sad part is that I’ve apparently learned nothing because I am begrudgingly picking them to beat the Patriots in Week 8. And now that I’ve done that, there’s a 90% chance they’re going to lose and when that happens, I have no idea how I’m going to explain to my BPA sponsor why I picked them to win again.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, I’m going to start sharing that information with you now that we’re eight weeks into the season. Here’s a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year.
My best picks record by team (Straight up): Titans (5-1), Browns (5-2), Bills (5-2), Texans (5-2), Jaguars (5-2), Raiders (5-2), Saints (5-2), Panthers (5-2), Chiefs (4-2), Dolphins (4-2)
My worst picks record by team (Straight up): Steelers (2-5), Rams (2-4), 49ers (2-4), Vikings (2-4)
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 7: 10-5
SU overall: 58-49
Against the spread in Week 7: 7-8
ATS overall: 48-56-3
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably ordering some new ‘Gilmore Girls’ DVDs off of Amazon since be destroyed the other ones.