The New York Jets’ D/ST is showing up a lot on our “Who Should I Start?” tool this weekend, making them a good group to investigate versus other fantasy squads in Week 11. The Jets host the Colts, a team led by the newly re-installed , back into the starting lineup after being benched for a few games for .
Things didn’t go particularly well, as the Colts lost both games with the veteran, though they were against tough teams in the Vikings and Bills. The young quarterback was always likely to return to the starting lineup eventually, and it’s not likely that much will change after just a few weeks.
Richardson has completed just 44% of his passes, though he is over 7.0 yards per pass attempt (which is about average). He throws deep about as often as anyone, so he doesn’t have to have a high completion percentage, but four touchdowns to seven interceptions isn’t going to work.
Indianapolis is ninth in yards per rush attempt and 19th in yards per pass attempt. They are close to average on offense, and things favor the run game with Richardson in the lineup. Even including a game in which he left in the first half, Richardson is averaging more than 40 rushing yards per game.
The Jets have allowed the ninth-least yards per pass attempt and 13th-least yards per rush attempt. They have been an above-average defense, even as things got a little worse after they fired Robert Saleh. New York is a decent defensive option this week.
Let’s look at some of the teams compared most to the Jets using the start/sit tool and which options are best. I used stats from NFL.com, which I will reference often.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City hasn’t looked like a great offense most of this season. They are 11th in points per game despite being below-average in yards per pass attempt and 31st in yards per rush attempt. The Chiefs are a real Super Bowl contender, but the offense isn’t their best unit.
The Bills defense is better than average in yards per pass attempt allowed but are bottom-five as a run defense. has thrown nine interceptions, just one below the league lead. Buffalo is set up to possibly succeed on defense.
It’s hard to target the Chiefs, but the numbers say it’s not the worst idea. When given the choice, I’d rather target the Colts, though, so I’d play the Jets over the Bills.
Advice: Start Jets over Bills
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Now a team facing a good offense: The Packers are in the top 10 in points per game, yards per pass attempt, and yards per rush attempt. Green Bay looks like a real contender, the type of team that’s not usually a fantasy target.
The Bears are close to average in yards per pass attempts allowed, but they have allowed the sixth-most yards per rush attempt. Chicago seems on the way down, and while that might be more on the offense, the defense is also regressing a little at times.
I’m not interested in targeting a solid Packers team; I’ll play the Jets over the Bears.
Advice: Start Jets over Bears
New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland has been one of the most disappointing teams this season, though the offense wasn’t projected to be great. was at worst-in-the-league levels as a quarterback, and has been OK in relief after Watson went down for the season.
The Saints have had better defenses of late, but guys are getting older and injured, and the talent level isn’t as high as the past few years. New Orleans has allowed the 10th-most yards per pass attempt and the second-most yards per rush attempt. That’s not a team to trust, even against a poor offense.
The Browns are averaging the least yards per pass attempt and 10th-least yards per rush attempt on offense. It’s not pretty. It makes sense to target Cleveland, but New Orleans is tough to trust given their performance. It’s close to a toss-up, but I’ll favor the Jets here again.
Advice: Start Jets over Saints
Tennessee Titans vs. Minnesota Vikings
Tennessee’s offense is bad; they’re not going anywhere with that group. The defense has been stout, though, as the Titans have allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and 10th-least yards per rush attempt.
We’ve seen the Vikings’ highs, but they’ve also struggled at times. Against the Jaguars last week, who have been brutal on defense, Minnesota scored only four field goals, though they took the victory 12-7. That’s an alarming outcome for a team that surely fancies themselves Super Bowl contenders.
The season-long numbers are strong for Minnesota, as they have averaged the fifth-most yards per pass attempt. The run game has been below average, but the Vikings are a team that can move the ball and score at times.
Tennessee’s successful defense makes them enticing, especially after threw three interceptions last week. The Titans and Jets are another toss-up, with New York having a better matchup. I’ll slightly favor the Jets.
Advice: Start Jets over Titans
Ranking the Teams
I’ll give you my full rankings of the D/ST of these five teams in Week 11. Everyone is pretty close except for the Bears, who are clearly last in my mind.
- New York Jets
- Buffalo Bills
- Tennessee Titans
- New Orleans Saints
- Chicago Bears